The hiatus requires a re-introduction.

Booze M&A Newsletter ... that's the elevator pitch here. 

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Continue reading if you want predictions that are 100% wrong 80% of the time. 

View from the trenches: 3Q2024

My last newsletter was 12 months ago, and I moaned about the change in the market from 2022, when "at least 10x NSV" was my go-to valuation metric.

The past year has been as challenging, especially on the sell-side. No surprises given underlying performance and, importantly, lack of visibilityinto performance of perspective buyers. To be fair, high growth start-ups are also failing to, well. grow.

That volatility feeds through very quickly to one-man-and-their-cat type of M&A shops. But there is a bight spot: the desire to re-base growth has fuelled portfolio exits.

I talked about this briefly in Vol. XII but was perhaps too conservative on the demand -- mostly from regional family-owned companies. The resulting multiples have been higher than I had anticipated. There is some room yet for this sort of activity (I hope!).

Personally, this period has necessitated almost as large a mental shift as when I quit my day job five years ago. The rhythms of the market have allowed (forced?) me to take up a hobby (email if you want to know more) that pairs well with shoe leather, the only thing that fuels my business. 

Road Trip

After a market visit to Istanbul, where every bartender had heard of Safari (my most recent transaction) even if it wasn't currently in stock, I am off to Kentucky and Tennessee to get a sense of what might keep me occupied over the nexttwelve months. Hopefully, the trip also provides some fodder for Vol. XIV.

[A special thought for those affected by the storm in NC and adjoining areas]. 

PS: Pushback on Relentless Premium-isation 

Not to force-fit a comparison, but the slowdown in drinks (as above) is reflected in the broader consumer world. With a bit of time on my hands (as above), I've watched -- and often traded -- as the luxury & higher end of premium spectrum (Burberry, Mulberry, Kering, Doc Martens et al) feels the burn from consumers tired of inexorable annual price rises without any perceptible improvements in features / perceived benefit.