It's been almost nine months since Vol. X but I bet no one lost sleep over the (in)frequency of my booze+finance musings. Things were a bit nuts in 2022 (mostly good, with a few misses that I can't seem to let go of) on the advisory side of backbar, against the backdrop of ever higher* multiples. That makes up for all the failed predictions over the years. Like Jacob Rees-Mog, "I was wrong, but for the right reasons".  

Non-Alc, net yet our saviour

The social media blitz by non-alc brands marks the dreariness of (Dry) January. I wish them luck but from my perspective the category is showing itself to be both more price sensitive than initially hoped and subject to a more compressed price ladder. The latter is partially driven by the likes of Gordon's as it plays adjacent to its core market. Adding more variants / SKUs isn't going to change that. 

The lack of on-trade distribution still befuddles me, too, especially relative to the headlines. Perhaps the initial pitch of a mid-week at-home occasion stuck and the category lends itself to the off-trade. I sincerely hope things change because a number of friends of backbar are in this segment and I want them to succeed.

There is a WIP transaction in this segment that will be the crucible of these two contradictory forces: high value expectations (see below) and the promise (vs reality) of the non-alc segment. Watch this space. 

*About those Multiples

2022 was possibly a high-water mark for large-ish non-celeb transactions. For the rest, the drop in public market valuations fed through on the funding side -- Seed and Series A+. Corporate buyers though are getting more discerning given the post Covid bump in trading is a tide that covered many shortcomings. 

I'd hazard though that 2023 will continue to be good to those vendors with an asset that plugs a hole in someone's portfolio. Just as long as vendors don't try to stuff the trade around the time of a transaction, of which there have been a few egregious examples recently. 

Personally, 2023

My former bosses never once said "you need to get out of the office more". Forget Year of the Rabbit, for me this is the Year of Shoe Leather to make sure 2024 and beyond are as much fun as the year just gone. If you're reading this, odds are I will be buying you a drink this year. Salut!