The Speed Rail: Vol. X (!)
Dhruv Luthra | March 2022
Welcome back to my intermittent newsletter on booze + finance. This is a special issue because it covers a few of my favourite subjects outside booze -- economics of streaming media, technology platforms, and calling out B.S. hiding in plain sight.
Netflix & Celebrity Economics
Spare a thought for those A-listers at the top of their game -- especially the ones that grew up in the era of 'linear' media. They benefited from an asymmetric payout of producing hit movies. The likes of Seinfeld, Arnold (Terminator 2), James Cameron (T2, Avatar) could count on a 10-digit payout over a lifetime from the combination of box office revenue, syndication fees, residuals, and merchandise. The product promotion that these celebs did - watches, handbags etc - was the side gig meant to keep their profile up for sake of the box office and that resultant income stream.
In the streaming era, the distribution curve is flattened: it's easier and quicker to sell a movie to a platform for a (much) smaller but assured up-front payment (credit to The Economist for covering this better). Out goes the celeb's residual/syndication fee and notions of financial exceptionalism. They have little choice but to turn to drink (metaphorically): shilling for a consumer product is no longer your side gig, it becomes the gig. Who'd have thought all this 'Netflix and chill' would have such a tangible downstream impact on booze multiples.
EzTenda
Normally this is not a space for calling out individual brands (established exception below), but this new technology tendering business that connects the on-trade to drinks brands caught my interest for a number for reasons. First, it is run by a former M&A colleague (and decidedly average tennis player). Second, it is the rare example of trying to use technology in a business that has typically relied on many human layers in the sales value chain. Lastly, it checks many of the things I look for in my own non-booze investment portfolio: an intermediation platform that holds no inventory of its own while benefiting from network effects. There won't be two winners in this space, early critical mass will be key. I have no dog in this fight other than an interest in seeing a friend make a go of things.
Oh Lyre's! You did it again...
This PR machine masquerading as a drinks company continues to troll me with its announcements. On the way to world domination, it has, in an industry first, hired a Chief Investment Officer. A role normally associated with hedge funds, will help this company ... hang a giant 'FOR SALE' sign outside(!?). Scratching my head here. Please can someone from Coca Cola make a move already so that I can find a new hobby horse.