Lyre's

It's not my M.O. to call out individual brands. But you're fair game if you repeatedly put out press releases highlighting pre-money valuation or actively encourage talk of your Unicorn status (technically, a 1/3 Unicorn but who is counting). Lyre's frequent and deliberate PR campaign around its valuation caught my attention because it is both uncharacteristic of our industry and tailor-made for the sort of stuff I like to cover in this column.

While the rest of us focus on brand traction with consumers, velocity, and going deep in a small number of markets, this business has zagged. My guess is that the Founders are deploying in bev-alc the key contemporary skill in technology venture investment: capital raising. 

Become big enough, fast enough with someone else's money that capital becomes its own 'moat'; brand becomes secondary to size. At some point the folks in, say, Coca Cola will want/need to buy an option on a category that is taking share from traditional CSD. Current talk of Monster - Coke - Constellation is an illustration of this. A business that has gone wide with a local bottling model (I think?) will probably resonate with your view of the world from Atlanta. Alternatively, Lyre's can just wait for the return of the SPAC market, which loves a target promising world domination in its segment. 

Contrary to previous promises of not making predictions, I would hazard a guess that there will be a nice sized exit event for this business. It just won't be to the readership of this column. 

CleanCo

In for the penny, in for the pound: another no/low alc business gets called out in this edition. Except for the opposite reason: CleanCo of the UK signed a deal with a new outfit, Demeter & Co, for US entry/distribution ... almost on the down low. Think of Demeter as a more grown up version of backbar spirits, offering a full stack service across the three tiers to new brands. I think it was a good move for CleanCo, which will probably share value creation on the basis of pro rata US contribution, while not taking its eye off the home market. A more focused strategy than the preceding business. 

Deal Thresholds

Time was when I was told that less than six-figure 9 litre cases didn't float the M&A boat. That boat has now turned 180 degrees: I am amazed at how small ideas can gain traction if they exhibit the right mix of consumer insight, growth, and margin. It's not an even response across the board, but the trend is clear and visible. Long may it last because without this wind at my back, you wouldn't be within touching distance of Vol. X. A party to celebrate three years of independence is in the works. Thanksgiving indeed.