Ain't No Party Like a Non-Alc Party

To borrow from Tolstoy: non-alc drinkers are each consumers in their own way while drinkers are alike. Stripping away the literary guff, the upshot is that the current approach to non-alc, often as an analogue to spirits, is both flawed and limits the category's potential. A more profound takeaway is the existing booze route-to-market will result in a more concentrated set of winners (relative to the market for alc brands). 

Despite the noise about no-alc bars, millennials, and dry January, the on-trade point of sale for this category will predominantly remain traditional bars where the range of non-alc (number of brands) and depth (SKUs per brand) will be limited. Think of how many gins a bar will stock across the international giants, independents, and regional curiosities. Multiply that by rum/tequila/whisk(e)y. On the other hand, I'd hazard that there might be just be a handful of non-alc brands, some of which might be pushed by the CSD players, whose adult soft drinks and non-alc expressions of that segment will firmly be part the new category.   
The off-trade is beginning to offer more shelf space but here, too, distributor push will be key.

There is consumer-driven call for these brands but - at least from a supply perspective - coverage tails off relatively quickly outside the metros. Some of this is due to the perceived lack of functional benefits (it leaves me feeling like I was feeling before) and some of it is due to price ("how much for distilled water!?"). 

Lest you think I am bearish in the sector, far from it. My household is predominantly non-alc and I spend a lot of time with founders and concepts. But the fundamental drivers are, in my view, geared towards a winner-take-lots outcome.  

Megxit

The answer, as with many other things in life, is booze. The question is how do the former HRH's fund their celebrity lives on just a royal income.  A transatlantic burn rate that involves 24/7 security and keeping up with the JayZs won't be supported by merchandise in Class 35 (pens, mugs etc). The quickest way to get from 7 digits to 10 is through Class 33 - beverage alcohol.

Everyone is doing it (Mr Priyanka Chopra, Dan Ackroyd, Bryan Cranston, ...) so how hard can it be, right?  This just the sort of first world problem Back Bar Spirits was meant to solve. My advice to the Sussexes would go as follows: 

The family you left behind captive in the palace won't be happy with you using 'Sussex Royal' in the brand as a carve-out is not meant to dilute the parent firm. Instead, you'll have to go back to the drawing board with a brand that embodies your ethos, which itself is a bit muddied after inconsistent messaging: preaching about having a cap on your progeny for environmental reasons whilst flying the jet. Assuming you can get over that, avoid obvious and tempting distractions which might link back to your favourite causes but have only tangential consumer proposition (like gin made from elephant dung to help save wildlife).

Ultimately, wellness and low-alc is likely to be at the core of your brand and you're already familiar with the meteoric rise of LuluLemon and Goop, which will no doubt be your touchstone in terms of celebrity diversification and monetisation. Note the above though on where the non-alc market might on the hype curve.

Soon you will realise that booze is harder thank it looks; shoe leather counts. Take a page from Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson's book as he criss-crosses the country meeting distributors and posing for pictures with Walmart executives. Get ready to visit Bentonville, AK/Burnley, Stamford, CT/Slough and other such electrifying cities to press the flesh of people you may never see again.

Remind you of a job you just quit...?